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jhon peter
Submitted 2019-01-09 05:54:05 There is another 60 percent chance cold and heavy rain will merely swell the berries
by 5-10 percent Cheap Phil Kessel Jersey , decreasing their concentration. This will cause the worse grape quality
that can only be sold for $2.00 per bottle. Now we can make an assumption and calculate
the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did strike. We can use the EMV
method to calculate the revenue.
Developed beneficial Botrytis mold: $8x1000x12x40%x70% = $26,880
Not from botrytis mold : $2x1000x12x60% = 14,400
The total revenue is: 26,880 + 14,400 = $41,280
On the other hand Cheap Jack Johnson Jersey , if the rainstorm did not strike, Jaeger could wait until the grapes
ripen more fully, which has only a 40% chance to make a good wine. The price for this is
$3.50 per bottle. However, there is a 40% chance of the grapes becoming a lighter wine,
which can be sold to the wholesale for $3.00 per bottle. The other 20% chance is that it
will lead to a low acidic wine, which only can be sold for $2.50 per bottle. Now we can
assume and calculate for the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did not
strike.
Good wine: $3.5x1000x12x40% = $16 Cheap Patric Hornqvist Jersey ,800
Lighter wine : $3.0x1000x12x40% = $14,400
Low acidic wine: $2.5x1000x12x20% = $6,000
The total revenue is: $16,800+$14,400+$6,000 = $37 Cheap Evgeni Malkin Jersey ,200
As a result, the revenue for not harvesting immediately is $41,280 x0.5 +
$37,200x0.5 = $39,240 The second possible option is to harvest the grapes before the storm comes. Even
though Jaeger can avoid a huge loss by doing this, he cannot sell those for a good price
because the grapes are not completely ready to be made into a high quality wine. It
contains risk. Therefore Cheap Kris Letang Jersey , the not-quite-ripe grapes will directly affect the quality. They
can be sold for $2.85 per bottle. At the same time, some of the grapes that did not meet
the quality standard can only be sold in bulk. Jaeger can only receive half of the
revenue($1.425). Now we can assume and calculate for the total profit when Jaeger
harvests immediately. When Jaeger harvests immediately, the total revenue for bottling is:
Bottling: $2.85x1000x12 = $34,200 (this method will affect the company鈥檚 reputation)
Unbottling wine in bulk: $1.425x1000x12 = $17,100
In conclusion, Jaeger can contrast the above calculations to figure out the profit and
loss from each possible option. The results show the profit for not harvesting immediately
is greater than harvesting immediately. We calculate that there is 1- (17 Cheap Derek Grant Jersey ,100 $39,240) =
44% loss if Jaeger chooses to harvest immediately. The EMV for the 鈥渘ot harvesting
immediately鈥?alternative exceeds the consequence associated with the 鈥渉arvesting
immediately鈥?(Bodily, S. E, 1998 p.64). On the other hand, Jaeger also needs to consider
the risks before he makes the decision. The reason why we do not harvest immediately
with bottling is because it has a high risk to damage the company鈥檚 reputation. Even
though they can be sold for a high price, it is not good in the long term for the company.
In the short term Cheap Bryan Rust Jersey , it is always preferable if we see a certain outcome in which Jaeger can
sell unbottled wine in bulk for $171,00 without risk. Finally, we recommend Jaeger
harvest later because we see the potential gains are twice more than those from harvesting
immediately.

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